Japanese Politics
Ξ August 31st, 2009 | → 0 Comments | ∇ Politics |
The Japanese Liberal-Democrat Party (LDP), the party that has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war years, lost the last election. High hopes of the Koizumi administration a few years ago were followed by less-able (which isn’t to say inept – Koizumi was a phenom) and eventually the economic meltdown that hit Japan’s export economy particularly hard. The Japanese electorate turned to the only opposition party of note – the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). However, this is probably a short lived change in power and doesn’t represent a fundamental shift in Japanese politics.
The LDP is madeup of the powerful, entrenched interest in Japan. That’s why you frequently see Prime Ministers that are sons or grandsons of previous PMs or other powerful members. The DPJ, however, is an amalgamation of all the fringe parties that are too small on their own to pose an electoral threat to the LDP. There is no common underlying ideology or other bonds apart from the desire to supplant the LDP. As a result, you’ll get nationalists, conservatives, socialists and even communists in the same government. The result is likely to be a very schizophrenic and short lived government. A similar occurrence happened after the implosion of the Japanese economy in 1993, at the beginning of the lost decade. The non-LDP rule was likewise disjointed and confused, and quickly led to the restoration of the LDP.
Expect an interesting couple of years, followed by a return of LDP to power.
For those interested, here are a couple Stratfor links (you’ll need to request a free copy via e-mail) on the subject:
Japan: A Likely DPJ Government (Aug 14th, 2009)
The Geopolitics of Japan: An Island Power Adrift (Aug 27th, 2009)