Trends in the Gallup Poll
Ξ August 31st, 2010 | → Comments Off | ∇ Politics |
There have been indications since spring that this was going to be a Republican election cycle. That, in and of itself, isn’t a shocker – the President’s party usually loses seats in non-Presidential years, and given the overwhelming Democratic majority, the Republicans couldn’t really go anywhere but up.
What is surprising is the latest Gallup generic party poll. Gallup has been performing that poll since WWII, and is now registering a 10-point Republican lead – by far the largest in history. Historically, Republicans are under-represented in that poll, so a 1-2 point Democratic lead usually means a wash. Even in 1994, with the Contract with America class, the lead was only 5 points. What’s more, up until August, the distance between the two parties on the poll was fairly close, with Democrats and Republicans switching places every couple of weeks. The entire month of August, however, has shown the Republicans with a sizable lead over Democrats, and that it’s widening.
Traditionally, political voting patterns begin to set in late August, as the primaries finish and candidates begin open campaign season. By the end of September, voting trends are pretty much locked into place, with the ability of politicians (barring an October Surprise) to shift the electorate usually limited to just a couple of percentage points.
As such, it’s now that we look for indicators that the voting populace is breaking one way or the other for a given election cycle. I’d say a historic lead for Republicans in the Gallup poll qualifies for just such an indicator. With such an advantage, even Republicans that shouldn’t have a chance (running in historically Democratic districts), assuming they run a competent campaign, move into the “toss-up” category.
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